SteelerWatch

DRAFT POTENTIAL:
- Day 1: NO WAY
- Day 2: LATE, IF AT ALL

Heading in to the 2007 season, fans should expect more of the same, but also something very different.

Don;’t expect new coach Mike Tomlin to shy away from the run. He comes across as a big fan of smashmouth football — why not, he’s a defense guy, after all — and one of the gifts he received when he was hired was a Pro Bowl-tailback in Willie Parker. Behind Parker, though, things get fuzzy.

The Steelers will run, run, run this year. Tomlin has voiced his desire to feature a balanced attack on offense, and he has a weapon at his disposal who can break for 60 yards or more on any play. But Tomlin recently stated his desire to utilize a two-back combination, which is quickly becoming the “in” thing to do on offense. The Steelers had this type of attack leading up to their victory in Super Bowl XL, with the speed of Parker and the prototypical power of Jerome Bettis. Tomlin believes he already has the players he needs. Therein lies the complication.

Behind speedster Parker, the Steelers have Verron Haynes, soon-to-be free agent Najeh Davenport and the very Hulk-like but very inexperienced John Kuhn (6′0″, 255 pounds according to the Steelers’ official Web site). Signing Davenport worked out pretty well for the Steelers last season until he went down with a broken ankle, his second major injury in as many seasons. Unfortunately, no one was able to see enough of him last year, and an already-tight salary cap may not allow the team to re-sign him. Backs over 240 pounds who can run fast are hard to come by, so even the risk of injury won’t prevent other teams from looking to Davenport.

Verron Haynes has been good for Pittsburgh on and off the field. He had only 15 carries in 2006, but he averaged 5.2 yards. he also had 18 receptions for 95 yards. He’s quiet, he does his job, knows his role and gives it his all on every down. The problem is that he’s barely bigger that Parker at 5′10″ and 222 pounds.

John Kuhn is the wildcard here. Right now, it doesn’t seem very many people are sure of his current contract status. He’s been signed and cut by the team twice, and he saw very limited action — but he averaged 11 yards per touch. During his college career he had 26 games of more than 100 yards on the ground, but he played at Shippensburg, which is about the size of some community colleges. There’s really not much to go on aside from his work on the practice squad, but he has the size to potentially get him on the roster for the entire 2007 season if he plays short-yardage well in the preseason.

At a position with this many options, don’t expect a day-one draft pick. Some draft watchers have the team taking Marshawn Lynch of California, but don’t bet on it. The Steelers have more pressing needs, including outside linebacker (the salary cap hit at OLB for 2007 is ridiculous for two guys who will be 30 this year) and offensive line. Maybe rounds six or seven, when the picks are more experimental than pre-planned, but certainly nothing higher than that. Not when they already have so much talent available.

DRAFT POTENTIAL:
- Day 1: MODERATE TO HIGH
- Day 2: VERY HIGH

Expect the fullback position to get a lot of attention this offseason. Throughout 2006 the team carried a single fullback, sometimes listing Jerame Tuman as the backup to starter Dan Kreider.

Kreider is one of the perennial bright spots of the team. He is, without a doubt, a top-five fullback and is arguably the best blocking fullback in the league. He quietly goes about his job each week, gives it his all, and has paved the way for Jerome Bettis, Willie Parker and — for the brief period when he was actually healthy — Duce Staley, among a host of others.

But Kreider is reaching that usability limit with fullbacks. Now a seven-year veteran, he isn’t getting any younger, and with age comes an increased likelihood for injury. While his outstanding play throughout his entire career has been a huge asset for the team, depending on him to last the entire season is actually a liability. One lengthy stay on the injury report can be disasterous for a team that prides itself in its running game, so a backup at the position is an absolute must.

Because Dan Kreider is essentially guaranteed to start, this is a perfect position on which to use a day-two draft pick. If there’s a late-round gem waiting to be called, you can bet the Steelers already have someone scouting for it.

There doesn’t appear to be much early-round interest in fullbacks this year, so what talent is out there should still be available in the later rounds. While it’s most likely that the Steelers will waite until day two, they may choose to grab the top remaining prospect at fullback late in the first day.

There are also a number of free-agent fullbacks who should be available this year, and two of the better ones available come from intraconference rival New England. You can safely bet that the Patriots won’t let both Heath Evans and Patrick Pass go, but don’t expect the Kraft family and Bill Bellichick to make much effort to keep them both around, either. The Patriots, like the Steelers, tend to look to the draft and rookie free agents to bolster their ranks and keep youth playing in their favor.

DRAFT POTENTIAL:
- Day 1: NOT HAPPENING
- Day 2: LOW

I’m not one for painting rosy pictures of a bad situation. If there is a truly weak link on the line, it’s at Right Tackle. Current starter Max Starks has had a nearly schizophrenic career: one week, he’s mauling All-Pro defensive ends. The next week he looks like a an old man trying to chase down a cockroach with the end of his cane. He’s big, he’s strong and he’s smart, but his play is just too unpredictable.

So is it worth risking the health of your franchise player (Roethlisberger) in hopes of less spotty play? Maybe, but the smartest way to go is to at least take a look at what will be available during the offseason. While Starks has had his share of poor performances, he’s still starter quality in most cities — just maybe not the ‘Burgh.

The reason was simple, at least until Bruce Arians was promoted to offensive coordinator. Now it’s a two-pronged necessity. Not only is this a team that prides itself on having a top-notch running game, now they will utilize four-wide receiver sets more often than in the past, putting that much more of a premium on blocking on the line. By taking the tight end out of the mix, you eliminate a potential blocker; the same goes for the fullback.

The in-house option for replacing Starks in the starting lineup is 2006 rookie Willie Colon. Colon started two games in 2006, his only real playing time in the NFL, so guaging his performance is difficult. The team was 1-1 during his two starts, the final two games of the season. He’s dramatically smaller (by 30 pounds and 4 inches) than Starks, which could actually give him an advantage over the incumbent starter, particularly in four-receiver sets.

I’ve already speculated that the team may attempt to trade up in this year’s draft to pick up Left Tackle Levi Brown of Penn State. He would definitely make a good option at right tackle, even though he’d be switching sides of the line, but I’ve also speculated that he could be moved to Right Guard as Alan Faneca’s backup. However, you generally don’t waste a first-round pick on someone who is destined to sit on the bench for at least another four years, so the more obvious option would be to utilize him at right tackle. That would likely move Starks or Colon to the Guard position.

Realistically, though, I don’t think there is much potential for drafting a right tackle before the sixth roud, and then only to add depth. The more likely situation is that we’ll see more of Willie Colon in 2007.

There is one big caveat here: Starks is a restricted free agent this year. There are teams needing major help, like the Arizona Cardinals. As uneven as Starks tends to be, he would certainly be an upgrade for that line. There are a number of other teams that are likely to be looking at him, as well. If Cowher was still in charge, they would likely counter any offer made by another team. But a new head coach, offensive coordinator and offensive line coach will probably eliminate that possibility.

Just don’t bet the farm that Max will be starting come September.

Draft Potential:
- Day 1: VERY LOW*
- Day 2: LOW

* - Because of lack of depth at guard and some weakness at right tackle, it is possible (unlikely, but possible) that the team will attempt to trade up to take LT Levi Brown out of Penn State in the draft; however, the likelihood that he would be utilized as a left tackle is just about zero percent. Therefore, drafting a left tackle in the first round should be counted as either a draft of a left guard or a right tackle — unless Mike Tomlin is a complete sucker, which I highly doubt.

The Steelers are solid at left tackle heading into 2007, and for good reason. For a right-handed quarterback, the left side of the line is critical, because that’s his blind side. While guards are generally bigger and are responsible for interior linemen and middle blitzes, the space they need to occupy is somewhat limited. Tackles are responsible for covering outside blitzes that can come from nearly any level of the defense and can start from any point from the hash marks to the sideline. It’s a lot of ground to keep your eyes on, and you need to be in peak shape to handle the position.

Marvel Smith is, to put it simply, really good at what he does.

The seven-year veteran began his career on the right side but was moved after three seasons to the left side of the line, where he has become the hands-down starter. Combined with Alan Faneca, the left side of the line has become as dominant of a force as any in the league. The pair have started side by side for nearly every game over the last four seasons, during which the Steelers have regularly been among the top rushing teams in the league. He’s been a starter since his first game in the league.

Behind Smith is youngster Trai Essex. Essex has seen limited playing time due to the presense of Smith, but is good enough to be a starter for a number of teams. His limited playing time has hampered his growth to a certain extent, and the lack of familiarity with his fellow linemen has shown in the snaps for which he has been on the field. However, he shows natural ability and has a ton of power. He can drive his opponent off the line and is adequate as a pass blocker, although he could certainly stand to improve a good deal in that respect.

Don’t look for the team to draft a left tackle, unless their plans are to utilize the player elsewhere. There’s enough talent here to be content with as-is, and no need to dig any deeper.

Draft Potential:
- Day 1: NOT LIKELY
- Day 2: EH, MAYBE

Cue the jokes about deoderant. Finished? Good, let’s get to business.

The right side of the Steelers line was essentially a travesty this season. 2006 starting right guard Kendall Simmons has been largely dependable in his relatively short career, but he seemed to be off his game for the first eight contests or so. Willie Parker’s best runs all season came from the left side (even his middle runs came behind Alan Faneca and Jeff Hartings) because the right side seemed to be getting bullied off the line.

That said, Simmons and left tackle Max Starks showed marked improvement over the final eight games. Unfortunately it may be too little too late. Chris Kemoeatu filled in for Simmons twice and played well enough to deserve a second look. That’s a shame, because Simmons was taken 30th overall in the 2002 draft. He’s big, he’s smart and he’s gifted, but the fact that he didn’t play the season at a first-round level leads me to believe that he will at the very least be challenged hard for the spot by Kemoeatu, and may be displaced. Should a good right guard come available in free agency, we may see an immediate end of the line for Simmons as a starter. This isn’t all that likely though, as guards may be hard to come by.

While it’s definite that the Steelers will pick a guard in the draft, it’s more likely the chosen player will be slated to back up Faneca on the left side, filling a hole that’s existed for far too long.

Regardless of moves made in free agency and the draft, it’s hard to believe the Steelers will outright get rid of Simmons. However, he doesn’t have the virtual guarantee for his position that exists for other offensive players like Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward and Alan Faneca. The departure of head coach Bill Cowher has opened a number of opportunities in the starting lineup, and the offensive line promises to have two of the better camp battles on the right side of the line. New coach Mike Tomlin will not allow underachievers to keep their jobs. That’s not to knock Cowher; he was successful at running the team, but we all got the feeling that more than one player had a spot in the starting lineup they didn’t necessarily deserve.

Draft Potential:
- Day 1: EXTREMELY HIGH
- Day 2: HIGH

Let’s get this out of the way first: Alan Faneca is the starter at left guard for as long as he wants the job. As of this weekend he will have participated in five straight Pro Bowls and has been a team captain for the last two years. He’s started just about every game since being placed in the lineup during the 1998 season. Alan was drafted in the first round (#26) and has exceeded all expectations placed on him from Day One. To put it simply: Faneca is the starting left guard.

That’s where it gets interesting. The Steelers don’t have a backup left guard on the roster, and only have a single backup at right guard (Chris Kemoeatu, drafted #204 overall in 2005). No other spot on the roster is as thin for Pittsburgh as the two guard positions.

That said, it’s a pretty sure bet that at least two offensive linemen will be drafted or picked up in free agency this year, and left guard is sure to be the first position on the list. Unfortunately, the early word is that quality guards will be hard to come by in free agency, so it looks like the draft is the only real option here. The unfortunate part is that there are other pressing needs on the depth chart too, including cornerback. Most scouts and draft watchers see Pittsburgh going after a corner or a defensive end in the first round, but don’t be surprised to see them trade up — with diminished production in 2006, Joey Porter could make excellent trade bait now that best-friend-forever Bill Cowher is gone — to go after OT Levi Brown of Penn State and convert him to a guard, or to wait and see if Texas guard Justin Blalock is still available at pick #14.

The only other option at this point is a trade, but don’t expect to see this happen for a backup. The Rooneys are the NFL’s most conservative family, which means they are unlikely to trade away talent for anyone who isn’t guaranteed to jump right into the starting lineup and make a big splash.

Expect more of the same, though. This team often makes excellent use of strong, undersized offensive linemen, using their lack of weight to their advantage for outside runs, bootlegs and screens. They like guys who can bulldoze defensive linement but still get downfield in time to make blocks in the second and third levels.

A day-one draft at this position is almost a foregone conclusion in my book.

Draft Potential:
- Day 1: MODERATE TO HIGH
- Day 2: MODERATE

Until last week, the future at center was crystal clear: All-Pro Jeff Hartings was the starter. Then he retired.

Now, the Steelers’ coaching staff must be feeling a sudden need to bolster the middle of their offensive line. Hartings and guard Alan Faneca were the only solid performers on a weekly basis in 2006, so the need for a strong anchor to replace the departed Hartings is a must.

The new favorite for the position is Chukky Okobi (which is a lot easier to say than his full name: Chukwunweze Sonume Okobi), who has played well, but sparingly. Hartings fought through a number of problems with his knees and started most of the games played since 2001. In his rare absences — and in situations where he needed to rest for a play or two — Okobi was the go-to guy. He was a low-round draft pick (round 5, pick #15) and has been sitting on the bench for his entire six-year career, so what he is actually capable of remains to be seen. He is a little heavier than Hartings, but shorter, which could play to the Steelers’ advantage if his technique improves on running downs.

Behind Okobi is 2006 rookie Marvin Philip. Philip is slightly older than most rookies at 25, and is also a late-round pick (round 6, 201st pick overall). Philip played center for the University of California and was named a first-team All-American in 2005 by the Associated Press. That same year, he was named the team MVP and was called the best center in the NCAA by The Sporting News. At 6′-1″ and 307 lbs., he is just a smidge heavier than Hartings. Scouting reports prior to the 2006 draft noted that he is strong and funamentally sound, but could be a liability if a play breaks down.

Free-agent centers are few and far between this year. The top prospect in the league is LeCharles Bentley of New Orleans, but Kevin Mawae of the Jets is also available. Mawae may fit the current scheme better with his smaller size (6′-4″, 289lbs.) but already has 12 seasons under his belt and may become more of a liability than an asset as the season progresses. Bentley is only in his 4th year and had a great season protecting Drew Brees.

Ultimately the team needs a good, all-around center. A lot is generally expected of a Steelers center, including pulling on outside runs (Dermontti Dawson was one of the best at this). Small and strong fits better in this scheme than just being big. However, with a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator, the needs may change somewhat. This is a position that will need a lot of focus leading up to the draft and in the free-agency period.

I thought it would be a good way to get started with SteelerWatch by examining each position to see where the biggest needs are, and what can be done to fill them.  This discussion will continue until the draft.  We start at the most obvious position, quarterback.

Draft Potential:
 - Day 1: NOT A CHANCE
 - Day 2: LOW ALMOST NON-EXISTENT

Clearly the Steelers have their starter already chosen.  Even with a new head coach, it’s hard to believe the position doesn’t default to Ben Roethlisberger.  He’s young, intelligent and athletic.  he has the prototypical size for a quarterback in today’s NFL, and he (usually) makes good movements in the pocket.  His decision-making has been a question over the last year — let’s think back to the worst decision of his career: riding a motorcycle, particularly without a helmet — but he’s a year older and a year wiser.  His performance markedly improved in the second half of the 2006 season as his blocking up front continued to jell, but it remains to be seen if he will make wiser decisions in 2007 when under pressure.

The departure of QB coach Mark Whipple raises questions that will only be answered in due time.

Backing up Roethlisberger is still Charlie Batch, who has proven to be a great reserve player and could easily be starting for a number of other teams around the league (Cleaveland comes to mind). 

The Steelers’ official site currently has Brian St. Pierre as the third-string QB.  Brian is a good option, but hasn’t seen much playing time.  He played very solid football during the 2006 preseason, and should remain on the roster.