Adrian Peterson outside top 10? Could happen
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I’ve taken some heat for having Adrian Peterson so low on my draft, so I’m going to lay out my reasoning.
First and foremost, I agree that Peterson is one of the best players in the draft — if not top-five, then surely just outside it. But most likely he’s a top-five guy, at least as far as talent goes.
Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, for him at least) there isn’t a lot of need at running back in the top 10. The Raiders could use him, but both Oakland and Detroit have such a deep need at quarterback that they couldn’t possibly take Peterson. In fact, either one of those teams could flip a bunch of coins to decide between JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson. All four players would fill a bigger need for both teams.
The Browns could make great use of Peterson if not for 1) the fact that they just put their money on Jamal Lewis, and 2) their line is so dreadfully bad that even a back like Peterson would be hard-pressed to average more than three yards per carry. The line in Arizona is even worse. With guys like Joe Thomas and Levi Brown on the board on the O-line, you don’t pass up the chance to draft a bulldozer.
Tampa Bay, drafting fourth, used their first-rounder on Cadillac Williams two years ago. With his potential, there’s no need for a second top pick being used on a runner in three drafts — especially since Calvin Johnson will most likely still be on the board. If the best player in the draft falls all the way to the fourth pick, you take him. Even if you don’t need him, you take him or you trade down a spot or two. At that point, if you’re going to pass on the best available, you may as well get something in return for being gracious enough to let him fall to someone else.
The Redskins have Clinton Portis and the Falcons have Warrick Dunn. They won’t draft a back in the first round — especially not the Redskins, who are sitting on Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright too. Drafting between those teams is the Vikings. They don’t have a stellar backfield but they have an adequate one, and huge need in the secondary. LaRon Landry would be far too much for them to pass on.
Next up is the Dolphins. They just used a top pick on Ronnie Brown and, like the Bucs, would be foolish to use another top pick on a runner.
The Texans…oh, the Texans. Worst. Line. Ever. There is no reason — at all — to draft a running back over an offensive lineman. They need to draft guards and tackles early and often. Add to that the money they dropped in the last month on Ahman Green and there’s no justifying it.
That does it for the top ten, but I have Peterson going 12th. That’s because the 49ers have quite possibly the Best Runningback You Don’t Know Anything About in Frank Gore. All he did last year was put up 1,695 yards — at an average of 5.4 yards per carry. No need for a runner there, either.
Of course, all this relies in the Raiders taking Russell or Quinn. If they elect to go after Johnson, the entire dynamic has changed. But even then, I just don’t see Peterson moving up unless a team in the top 10 trades down with a team in need of a runner, like the Packers. In fact, Green Bay trading up into the top 10 to take Peterson could be the biggest draft-day coup since the Cowboys built a dynasty by trading Herschel Walker. Maybe the Lions will do it — I can see it now: “We’ll give you the number two draft pick for your draft pick, straight up, as long as you agree to kidnap Matt Millen until Monday.”
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