SteelerWatch

How did SteelerWatch do predicting the draft? About as well as anyone else, really, because there was so much pick movement going on. Here’s a position by position analysis. SteelerWatch grade is in parenthesis.

Right Player Predicted
Right Position, Wrong Player Predicted
SteelerWatch was Stupid
Pick Traded

1. OAKLAND RAIDERS: JaMarcus Russell, QB (A+)
Al Davis redeems himself by actually making a relatively smart pick. This draft wasn’t nearly as good on QA talent as last year, but for what was available this was the smart pick.

2. DETROIT LIONS: Calvin Johnson, WR (C)
The Lions take a wideout in round one yet again. Making this pick even dumber is the fact that they sent Josh McCown to Oakland, who just took the best quarterback in the draft. They forced their own hand and took Michigan State QA Drew Stanton in round two. Stanton is a good pick but will probably never be a “franchise” quarterback. But he will be mentored by Jon Kitna, who worked wonders with Carson Palmer.

3. CLEVELAND BROWNS: Joe Thomas, OT (A+)
Brady Quinn was still on the board here, but the Browns did the smart thing by bolstering their offensive line. They then pulled off a major coup, as Quinn fell all the way into the 20s. They traded their second-round pick and 2008 first-round and took Quinn about 20 picks later than a lot of pundits — yours truly included — expected.

4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Gaines Adams, DE (A+)
With Johnson no longer on the board, this was obvious. With the number of holes in this team, they did the right thing by taking the best player available who isn’t a runningback.

5. ARIZONA CARDINALS: Levi Brown, OT (A+)
Short of trading up and taking Joe Thomas, they simply couldn’t have done themselves better.

6. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: LaRon Landry, S (A)
Great pick. With Adams no longer available they focused on another big need in the secondary and took the best cover guy in the draft.

7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Adrian Peterson, RB (A)
No Landry means total freedom. Total freedom means Adrian Peterson, the best guy left. This will be huge come September, but it’s slightly lessened by the fact that they do have capable runners on the team. But still, it’s Adrian Freakin’ Peterson.

8. ATLANTA FALCONS: Jamaal Anderson, DE (C)
They need a tackle because of the potentially unresolvable spat with Grady Jackson, but went with an end. They could have done better because Amobi Okoye was still on the board.

9. MIAMI DOLPHINS: Ted Ginn, Jr., WR (B-)
Curious pick considering the defensive need. He was the best WR left, and a little help for Culpepper can’t be a bad thing.

10. HOUSTON TEXAS: Amobi Okoye, DT
This was a need, and they did some work in free agency to bolster their offensive line, but a tackle would have been a good pick here.

11. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Patrick Willis, ILB (A)
With Anderson gone, this was a great pick.

12. BUFFALO BILLS: Martshawn Lynch (A)
Peterson was predictably gone at this point, so Lynch was the next best thing. They could have used the pick on their O-line but they needed someone in the backfield too.

13. ST. LOUIS RAMS: Adam Carriker, DE (C)
This could be an upgrade at right end, but they need someone inside to stuff the run. Carriker is an excellent player but not the best fit here.

14. NEW YORK JETS: Darrelle Revis, CB (A+)
I originally had them slated to take CB Aaron Ross. By trading up they nailed down a huge upgrade over Ross with Revis, who has a natural ability to find the ball. In the return game, no one in college football in 2006 was better or more exciting to watch.

15. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Lawrence Timmons, OLB (A-)
I had Posluzsny here before a last minute switch to Anthony Spencer because of his ability to switch from a 3-4 OLB to a 4-3 DE. The Steelers wound up addressing the DE position in round 2 and went with Timmons, who was predicted by many to be the best choice for the Steelers. Given the availability of LaMarr Woodely in round 2, this turned out to be a very smart pick.

16. GREEN BAY PACKERS: Justin Harrell, DT (B)
They addressed a hole, but running back was the biggest need by far. Purely based on the quality of a player that Harrell is, this becomes a B rather than a C.

17. DENVER BRONCOS: Jarvis Moss, DE (A-)
Right pick, wrong team. I had Moss going to the Jaguars here, but the Broncos clearly have intentions for him. A middle linebacker would have been a good pick to replace Al Wilson, but with Patrick Willis gone this was a good choice.

18. CINCINNATI BENGALS: Leon Hall, CB (A-)
The secondary has been a problem for Cincy for several years, and since cornerbacks didn’t go very quickly early on this is decent pick. Hall is a great talent and should have a quick impact.

19. TENNESSEE TITANS: Michael Griffin, S (C)
They really needed other positions so this is a strange pick. A wideout would have been a great choice. Griffin is good talent but not this high in round one.

20. NEW YORK GIANTS: Aaron Ross, CB (A)
Revis and Hall are off the board. Ross was the next best choice, and they made the right one.

21. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Reggie Nelson, S (A)
They needed a safety if they needed anything at all. This is probably the most solid team, talent-wise. They just don’t have the standouts at key positions. Nelson should be able to jump in immediately to replace Deon Grant.

22. CLEVELAND BROWNS: Brady Quinn, QB (A+)
Big, big deal here. Quinn was projected to go early in the first round but fell all the way to 22nd. With the Cowboys not in desperate need of anything in round one, the Browns participated in a trade that gave them a chance to take two of the best players in the draft at a discount price. They lose their first-round pick next year, but they get to build quicker. You couldn’t have scripted this better.

23. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Dwayne Bowe, WR (A-)
They really did pick a wideout here. I should have gone with the experts. However, I still think they need some O-line help with several big departures in the last 15 months. However, they really need more playmakers at receiver, and now they’ve even given away Dante Hall. This will certainly help.

24. New England: Brandon Merriweather, S (A)
They need help in the secondary as Rodney Harrison is nearing retirement. Best safety available with Nelson off the board.

25. CAROLINA PANTHERS: Jon Beason, OLB (B-)
Definitely an upgrade over Na’il Diggs. A wide receiver would have been a good choice and Robert Meacham was still on the board.

26. DALLAS COWBOYS: Anthony Spencer, DE (A-)
He’s small for a 3-4 end so he will likely be moved to linebacker. Greg Ellis is a fantastic player but will be starting his 10th season. Spencer can also be used in nickel and dime packages at defensive end.

27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Robert Meacham, WR (A+)
They need a cornerback but adding a wideout to replace the departed Joe Horn is a great move too, especially with Meacham still available. Meacham shouldn’t have fallen this far.

28. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Joe Staley, OT (A-)
Their second pick in the round turned out to be a very good one as well. Staley is a very good tackle and will have an impact on this team (I had to use the canned ESPN/Mel Kiper response at some point).

29. BALTIMORE RAVENS: Ben Grubbs, G (A)
They luck out that Grubbs is still available. They need a guard, and this was by far the best one left.

30. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Craig Davis, WR (D)
Why a D? Dwayne Jarrett was still on the board. Given what was available, they blew it. That’s not to say Davis is bad; he’s just not on Jarrett’s level.

31. CHICAGO BEARS: Greg Olsen, TE (A)
Staley is gone, so there’s no need to take a lineman who isn’t worthy of the first round. Olsen is big, both in talent and size. He should give Rex Grossman the relief valve he’s been missing.

32. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Anthony Gonzalez, WR (D)
Again, Jarrett is still on the board. When it all comes down to it, he has better hands and intangibles than Davis and Gonzalez, in my opinion. Jarrett’s times at the combine were slow, but he looks different in the game and has the size that every team covets. This one is a huge head scratcher, especially since the team already has speed burners.

So how did our Men of Steel do on day 1? Eh.

The first-rounder was no real shocker. OLB Lawrence Timmons was one of the three or four people rumored here, along with guys like Paul Posluzsny and Jarvis Moss. Because of his size, Timmons does a bit to cement the 3-4 defense in Pittsburgh. At 232 pounds he is far too small to be able to slide to defensive end. However, there is still the chance that he could fill in at weak-side linebacker in a 4-3 set, so while it pushes the leaning more toward 3-4, it actually strengthens the idea of using both sets as needed.

In the second round, the team selected defensive end LaMarr Woodley. At the end of the 2006 NCAA football season, Woodley was ranked in the second half of the first round. He slipped a bit for various reasons, but in the eyes of many scouts he was still a top five defensive player. This is a player who was still first-round capable but the needs of other teams dropped him far enough for the Steelers to take him much later. At 269 pounds, he is a pure 4-3 end — he’s too small for 3-4 end and too big for 3-4 OLB, not to mention that he lacks the ability to cover receivers consistently. Selection of Woodley means the Steelers really are pushing for a hybrid defense, and are assembling the personnel to have the luxury of switching between the two at a moment’s notice.

Finally, the Steelers picked a tight end in third round. The selection of Matt Spaeth raised more than a few eyebrows, particularly because the Steelers used a first-round pick on a tight end several years ago — and he’s become an absolute stud in this offense. However, backup tight end Jerame Tuman is aging, and was an undrafted free agent. A younger, stronger, faster upgrade is an excellent choice. However, because of their need on the offensive line, it certainly will result in a number of questions when the draft is complete.

Grade: B

Clevenland pulled off the drft-day trade of the year (ignore Randy Moss for a 4th round pick, it wasn’t worth the trouble). They took two top-10 guys and managed to get the second one all the way down at #22 because of how the needs of other teams panned out. General Manager Phil Savage redeemed himself and the entire organization — no draft pick for the 2.0 Browns has been to a Pro Bowl — that’s 71 picks prior to yesterday. Now they have Joe Thomas — the undisputed number one offensive lineman in the draft — and Brady Quinn, who had at one point been considered the top quarterback in the draft. Thomas will be an immediate impact player and Quinn will likely start before the season is done — or head coach Romeo Crennell is toast in Ohio.

There was a ridiculous amount of trading going down in the draft, particularly in round one. When the 49ers traded this year’s fourth-round pick and 2008’s first-round pick to the Patriots for the Pats’ second first-round pick this year, it’s hard to tell who got the best end of the deal. The 49ers are now a team on the verge, and poised themselves — with two first-round picks — to make a serious run at a division title this year. They also secured Darrell Jackson, Seattle’s #1 receiver, for a fourth-round pick. With their first-round picks, they picked up ILB Patrick Willis and OT Joe Staley, two excellent picks. The Patriots, however, now have the luxury of two first-round picks for the second straight year.

The What Were They Thinking award goes to…no one. That’s because the most deserving recipient of the award, the Philadelphia Eagles, traded away thier first-round pick and dropped to an early pick in the second round — and selected a quarterback, even with Donovan McNabb and Kelly Holcomb in the stables. The only possible reasoning here is thinking that McNabb may be in the twilight of his career in Philadelphia. Otherwise, it was a wasted pick.

And the Obvious Pick of the Year award winner is the Arizona Cardinals. If they didn’t pick the top remaining offensive lineman here, the entire front office should have been fired.

I’ve been all over the Web for the last month, following mock drafts, checking stats and scouting reports, and watchin video. I could probably recite every NFL team’s depth chart from memory at this point. I realize I’m nothing more than a fan with an opinion, but I’d like to share some last-minute thoughts prior to this weekend, and try to prove some so-called “experts” wrong.

1. The Texans will not draft a cornerback. The “in” thing over the last week has been to slot Leon Hall or Darrelle Revis in the number 10 pick, but if the folks in charge down in Houston have either a brain or a pulse — they don’t even need both — they will draft one of the top five offensive linemen. They just put the future of their franchise in the hands of the capable, but inexperienced, Matt Schaub. Not giving him protection up front would essentially be inviting David Carr deja vu. After the top four or five linemen, the dropoff into the next tier is pretty steep, so they need to get the talent available as soon as possible in the draft.

2. If Adrian Peterson does fall beyond the top five, he also slides past Minnesota. LaRon Landry is considered to be the defensive prospect with the best guarantee of a return on investment in the NFL, and the Vikings had a dreadful secondary in 2006. Passing on Landry would be one of the biggest mistakes of the draft, even with Peterson there for the taking.

3. Tennessee will not — I repeat, will NOT — draft a cornerback in the first round. Yes, the loss of Adam “PacMan” Jones for at least the first 10 games is a huge hit for this team. However, they have capable guys behind him, and they don’t want two ridiculously high-priced corners on their roster for 2008 when Jones returns.

And that’s my final word. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

The Steelers today signed restricted free agent right tackle Max Starks to a one-year deal worth $1.85 million, fulfilling the qualifying offer they extended to him prior to the start of free agency. Because of the fact that the original offer would have required another team to give up a first-round draft pick in order to sign Starks, it remained unlikely throughout the last two months that anyone would take a chance on the player.

Starks, who has had streaks of absolutely brilliant play, has been hampered by very inconsistent play at times — often at critical junctures in tight games. He stood completely motionless after the snap on a play versus the Ravens in 2006 during which quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was viciously sacked head-on by the defender Starks was supposed to have been blocking. Roethlisberger was briefly knocked out of the game, and the team went on to lose in one of their worst performances of the season. His play in that game, and several others during 2006, is a sharp contrast to his 2005 performance for which he was generally applauded.

Starks had been rumored to be headed to Arizona, where he would have been reunited with his former offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt and offensive line coach Russ Grimm. Those rumors were quickly squashed.

Starks has been repeatedly — and viciously — lampooned here at SteelerWatch as one of the primary reasons for the offensive line’s overall poor performance in the first half of the 2006 season. While I saw the re-signing as inevitable, I stand by my analysis.

Remember folks, you heard it here third.

The Steelers, who have made just two notable changes to their uniforms in the last 34 (changed face masks from gray to black and moved from block numbers to more modern rounded numbers during the Kordell Stewart years) will unveil a special uniform today that will be used for a single game to celebrate the team’s 75th anniversary, according to the Post-Gazette’s Ed Bouchette. No additional details are available; if anyone knows when the press conference will be held, please leave a comment.

For a complete review of past renditions of the uniform, click here.

I’ve taken some heat for having Adrian Peterson so low on my draft, so I’m going to lay out my reasoning.

First and foremost, I agree that Peterson is one of the best players in the draft — if not top-five, then surely just outside it. But most likely he’s a top-five guy, at least as far as talent goes.

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, for him at least) there isn’t a lot of need at running back in the top 10. The Raiders could use him, but both Oakland and Detroit have such a deep need at quarterback that they couldn’t possibly take Peterson. In fact, either one of those teams could flip a bunch of coins to decide between JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson. All four players would fill a bigger need for both teams.

The Browns could make great use of Peterson if not for 1) the fact that they just put their money on Jamal Lewis, and 2) their line is so dreadfully bad that even a back like Peterson would be hard-pressed to average more than three yards per carry. The line in Arizona is even worse. With guys like Joe Thomas and Levi Brown on the board on the O-line, you don’t pass up the chance to draft a bulldozer.

Tampa Bay, drafting fourth, used their first-rounder on Cadillac Williams two years ago. With his potential, there’s no need for a second top pick being used on a runner in three drafts — especially since Calvin Johnson will most likely still be on the board. If the best player in the draft falls all the way to the fourth pick, you take him. Even if you don’t need him, you take him or you trade down a spot or two. At that point, if you’re going to pass on the best available, you may as well get something in return for being gracious enough to let him fall to someone else.

The Redskins have Clinton Portis and the Falcons have Warrick Dunn. They won’t draft a back in the first round — especially not the Redskins, who are sitting on Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright too. Drafting between those teams is the Vikings. They don’t have a stellar backfield but they have an adequate one, and huge need in the secondary. LaRon Landry would be far too much for them to pass on.

Next up is the Dolphins. They just used a top pick on Ronnie Brown and, like the Bucs, would be foolish to use another top pick on a runner.

The Texans…oh, the Texans. Worst. Line. Ever. There is no reason — at all — to draft a running back over an offensive lineman. They need to draft guards and tackles early and often. Add to that the money they dropped in the last month on Ahman Green and there’s no justifying it.

That does it for the top ten, but I have Peterson going 12th. That’s because the 49ers have quite possibly the Best Runningback You Don’t Know Anything About in Frank Gore. All he did last year was put up 1,695 yards — at an average of 5.4 yards per carry. No need for a runner there, either.

Of course, all this relies in the Raiders taking Russell or Quinn. If they elect to go after Johnson, the entire dynamic has changed. But even then, I just don’t see Peterson moving up unless a team in the top 10 trades down with a team in need of a runner, like the Packers. In fact, Green Bay trading up into the top 10 to take Peterson could be the biggest draft-day coup since the Cowboys built a dynasty by trading Herschel Walker. Maybe the Lions will do it — I can see it now: “We’ll give you the number two draft pick for your draft pick, straight up, as long as you agree to kidnap Matt Millen until Monday.”

A day late but I wanted to make sure it was complete. Have a look at picks 17 through 32 of the SteelerWatch mock draft!

Okay, after a weekend excursion to Raleigh, N.C. (no, I didn’t see Bill Cowher anywhere) I’m back. Seems like very little went on in the ‘Burgh this weekend, football-wise. Here’s a brief rundown:

• - Left guard Alan Faneca skipped all offseason workouts and this weekend’s minicamp. Rumor has it he may consider holding out because of what he calls a contract dispute. However, his disagreement with the front office on their pick for head coach probably plays an even bigger role in his absences thus far.
• - Wide receiver Hines Ward has spoken with Faneca, but has no insight on Big Al’s future. However, he believes it is now time for the team to accept the fact that Chin and Peezy are gone and start acting like a team. He also called on more veterans to step up and be leaders.
• - Cowher says he may never return to coaching again, but refuses to completely rule it out.
• - Elsewhere in the ‘Burgh, the Penguins closed a fantastic season with a whimper, losing to the Ottawa Senators in five games in the first round of the NHL playoffs. They’re young and most players were in their first postseason series. Good luck next year, guys — and congrats on a fine season.
• - After starting the season on fire, the Buccos are looking more like the Pirates we’ve come to know and (hate to) love.

Expect the second half of the SteelerWatch mock draft this afternoon, barring any further delays.

SteelerWatch is currently out of town with limited Internet access. Please bear with the absence; more to follow Monday!