SteelerWatch

Well, Joey, we’ll miss ya.

It’s looking more and more like the Steelers are going to release Joey Porter prior to March 6, when he’s due a cool mil for a roster bonus. His age (30 on March 22) and last season’s perceived decline in play undoubtedly have the minds in the front office spinning right now, but can the Steelers really afford to lose him?

If Troy Polamalu is the face of the Steelers, and Alan Faneca is the voice, Porter is the attitude. He’s no-frills, speaks his mind, and he’ll rip you apart if you’re not wearing black and gold and you’re holding a football — and the football part is usually optional. He does his job, and he also puts a little adrenaline into Pittsburgh’s pulse.

But is he really worth the $6 million-plus he’s due this year?

On the other side of the linebacker corps. is Clark Haggans who, like Porter, turns 30 this year. His price tag is more than $2.5 million less than Porter’s this season, and he’s got less actual playing time under his belt, meaning he’s not nearly as dinged up. Porter missed several games in 2006 with injuries, has been shot in an off-field incident in Denver, and likely will be asking for a lot more money after the season is up. He was already unhappy heading into 2006, but was talked out of a lengthy hold-out.

The problem here is his reputation. He’s loved in Pittsburgh, not so much for what he’s done, but for what he says during the days leading up to big games. He has a tendency to absorb most of the media attention when the team is headed to the national stage, leaving the rest of the team to stay more focused on the task at hand. It works for Joey because he got such high intensity that his performance seems to improve when he’s been in a battle of words from Monday through Saturday. Because of the aura that surrounds him in the eyes of Pittsburgh fans, it’s hard for us to justify letting him go.

But from a football perspective, what kind of hole would he leave? I’ts probably safe to say that his presence on the field has elevated Haggans’ performance, partly because of his ability to motivate his teammates, but largely because he attracts the most attention, often leaving Haggans in the weaker matchup. I’m not completely sure Haggans is ready, or will ever be ready, to be the leader of an historically stellar group of linebackers. Neither is James Harrison, Porter’s likely successor if he is sent packing. While Harrison played great until his season ended in injury, his biggest claim to fame thus far has been the hit he laid down in Cleveland on Christmas Eve 2005 — not on a Browns quarterback, but rather a Browns fan who broke bad on the cops trying to chase him down.

There’s always the hope of doing with Porter what was done with Aaron Smith: a restructured contract that costs less now but a whole lot more in a few years, when Porter’s age has become an even greater factor.

The clock is ticking in the Steelers’ front office, and they know it. They officially will have five more days to decide what to do once they close shop tonight. There really are only three likely possibilities:

1) They have no intentions of releasing Joey now, and will wait out the final season of his contract to decide what to do;

2) The restructuring of Smith’s contract was an indication that they are trying to free up money to be able to keep Porter — and a mess of other players who will be 2008 free agents — around town;

or

3) Bye bye, Big Guy.

Defensive end Aaron Smith has been signed to a five-year contract extension, putting him solidly on the line through 2012 2011. 21

The standout defensive player’s contract details were not announced, but his salary cap number for 2007 is roughly $6.8 million, so the contract he signed was undoubtedly enormous. However, the contract may have included a restructuring of his 2007 numbers, or a drop in base salary for the next few years to keep his cap number lower for 2008-2009. More details to follow.

Update #1: The Post Gazette reports the final year of his current contract was nullified by the new contract, potentially saving the Steelers a lot of money this season by eliminating his ginormous 2007 cap number.

Update #2: The new contract is believed to be worth $25 million over the next five years, including $12 million between the 2007 and 2008 seasons. No specifics were given and it’s not yet clear whether the $25 million includes a signing bonus. The new deal means Smith will likely finish his career in Pittsburgh.

We’ll be collecting as much information as possible on all transactions made throughout the offseason (and during the regular season, as necessary). The items below are summaries, in the form of:

    <Name>, <Pos.>: <Duration> years, <Sal.>, <S. Bonus> (<Final Year>)

2/28/2007
Aaron Smith, DE: 5 years, $25 million, unknown (2012 2011)
Najeh Davenport, RB: 2 years, $1.595 million, $405,000 (2008)

In part one, we took a look at the overall make-up of the position as it currently stands, with an analysis of Hines Ward and Cedric Wilson, 2006’s official starters. Today we’ll look at emerging stars and the immediate and long-term future of the group.

Santonio Holmes came up big in 2006. On a team that focuses on running and generally makes use of experienced players over rookies, the youngster really made an impact. His 49 catches and 824 yards put him second on the team in receiving behind perrenial number-one target Ward — and 3.6 yards more per catch. He was regarded entering the 2006 draft as the best receiver, but the knock on him was that it was a draft that was especially thin at the position. Still, he managed great numbers for a number-two receiver in a run-oriented offense. He also returned punts, but while he did return one for a touchdown, he did fumble several of them away. That combined with some rare off-field problems with the law, put a damper on an otherwise-stellar season for the rookie that included a season-capping 67-yard overtime touchdown against the Bengals in the season finale.

Nate Washington also put up numbers that statistically looked good in his third season, looking more and more like a viable third option. However, the one statistic not commonly reported is dropped passes, and Washington had more than his fair share in 2006. He largely made up for it with his insane 17.8 yards-per-catch average on 35 receptions, four of which went for touchdowns. Washington is an exclusive-rights free agent, but his impact on the team in 2006 — and the fact that his salary under a new contract would undoubtedly be less than what Cedric Wilson is due to receive if he isn’t cut — will probably put Washington on the field in black and gold at least for one more season.

Given more pressing needs on the offensive line and at outside linebacker, the Steelers likely won’t take a receiver until at least round three — which is a shame, given the outstanding talent available. However, the Steelers’ front office and Personel Director Kevin Colbert excel at finding talented bargains, as is evidenced by players like running back Willie Parker (undrafted free agent), among others. One unlikely option would be dangling some trade bait — say, Joey Porter — in front of the New England Patriots to snag one of their two first-round picks and pick up either South Carolina’s Sindey Rice or Washington State’s Jason Hill. Rice is just outstanding, but has inexplicably been predicted to go very late in the first round on almost every draft board. And Hill? All he does is run the 40 in 4.32 seconds.

Two to three years from now it’s a safe bet to assume this group of receivers will be led by Santonio Holmes, probably across the field from Nate Washington and some mid-round 2007 draft pick in the slot. Holmes has the speed and the hands of a number-one option with no fear of going across the middle of the field, and just needs to get his head more in the game to go to the top tier. Washington has an unnatural ability to make the nearly impossible catches, but seems to lose focus when the ball hits him in the numbers. If those issues can be corrected, the Steelers have the makings of another Ward/Randle-El combination on their hands.

DRAFT POTENTIAL:
- Day 1: ROUND 3 OR 4
- Day 2: ROUND 5 IF NOT DAY 1

Wide Receiver is a difficult position to analyze in a single post, so this is going to be split into two parts. it’s the only position besides the offensive line — which is actually thee positions — where there can be five on the field at one time. But at times there can be as few as one. It’s a position where depth is extremely important, in part because of the numbers required but also because teams often only keep a single big-play receiver on the roster. A gifted receiver can be a coach’s dream, but also his nightmare. See Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson for a few examples of top-tier players who can polarize an entire nation.

The Steelers’ depth at the position cannot be understated. Right now, the receiving corps. consists of Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Cedric Wilson, Nate Washington, Willie Reid, Lee Mays, Sean Morey, Rasheed Marshall and Walter Young. Ward, Holmes, Wilson and Washington combined for all but four receptions credited to the entire group, but expect the distribution to change a little in 2007. New offensive coordinator Bruce Arians has plans to utilize four-wide-receiver sets more often, taking advantage of historically run-oriented first and second downs to try and spread defenses out. And with only one of those players — Ward — absolutely guaranteed to start in 2007, training camp is going to be a very active time for the group.

The future — beyond 2007 — needs to be figured into the Steelers’ immediate plans. Hines Ward will be entering his 10th season come September, and the Super Bowl XL MVP is coming off a season in which injuries became far more common than he’s become accustomed to in his career. He was forced to sit out two games in 2006 — twice what he had missed in the previous eight seasons combined — but his production still managed to fall pretty much in line with his numbers from the previous five seasons. However, his salary cap numbers are beginning to reach the level that most people would consider “astronomical” for people not named Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. He’s due just short of $6 million this season, and by 2009 that number will be approaching $9 million. Not one Steelers fan would want to see Ward become a cap casualty, but given his price and age two years from now, it remains a possibility.

Here and now, it’s a safe bet to assume Cedric Wilson will be let go. He’s due $500,000 as a prorated portion of his signing bonus and a base salary of $1.9 million. Cutting Wilson means the team is stuck with his signing bonuses of $500,000 in both 2007 and 2008 counting against the cap, but that’s a far cry from the $1.9 million they’d save.

Those two aside, the money for the remaining receivers is astoundingly low, so it’s a pretty good assumption that all will return. The group has two wildcards: Washington and Reid. Washington had an acceptable season for a fourth receiver, with 35 catches and four touchdowns. Reid spent most of the season injured, so the jury remains out on him.

In Part 2, we will take a closer look at Santonio Holmes, make some predictions about the team’s future at Wide Receiver and examine other changes we can expect come September.

DRAFT POTENTIAL:
Day 1: NOPE. NO WAY, NO HOW.
Day 2: POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY

Tight ends are a valuable asset in this league. They make great targets on trick plays, they serve at times as an additional offensive lineman, they can draw linebackers away from screens, they can receive screens, and if they’re fast enough they can even be downfield threats (see Steelers’ secondary enemy numero uno, Baltimore Raven Todd Heap). No other position is used with such versatility, and yet no other position that regularly handles the ball gets so little attention from the public — or opposing defenses.

That means good skills and diversity is important. The Steelers have rediscovered the usefulness of the position over the last two seasons with the arrival of Heath Miller. Combined with Jerame Tuman, they offer the same sort of one-two punch delivered by Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis during the 2005-06 Super Bowl run — albeit, not to the same extent, but similar nonetheless.

While he’s definitely no burner, Heath Miller is deceptively fast for his size. His height and long legs give him a slow, long stride similar to that of former NFL running back Herschel Walker, or the great Jim Brown. That doesn’t play to his advantage when trying to juke a defender, but let’s be honest here: when is the last time you saw a tight end run an out-and-up? Oh, and he is a mere 6′5″ and 256 pounds.

On the other side of the coin there’s Jerame Tuman. While ever so slightly smaller than Miller (6′4″, 253 pounds), Tuman is a considerably better blocker but lacks the speed and hands that Miller posesses. Tuman has been a member of the Steelers since his rookie year, signed as an undrafted free agent. He took over the starting job after former standout Mark Bruener left, and since the arrival of Miller has worked very well as the other bookend when the Steelers line up in a two-tight-end formation.

The team re-instated the tight end position as a large part of their passing offense when they signed Miller, who is known for his ability to make tough catches. While Tuman is capable of playing as a receiving tight end, his strong point is, without a doubt, his well-honed blocking skills.

With the two-tight-end sets so prominent in the team’s playbook, the team needs at least a third tight end on the roster. They signed former Buffalo Bill Tim Euhus on Feb. 15, shortly after signing undrafted rookie Jon Dekker to the practice squad. What either of them are capable of remains to be seen.

With much more pressing needs at offensive line, cornerback and outside linebacker, the only position likely to get less attention in the draft than tight end this year is quarterback. Free agent options look great if you want a starter, but the Steelers have two solid performers with experience. Expect the team to pick up one of the lower-rated free agents near the end of the summer, or possibly sign an undrafted rookie free agent. They need depth at nearly every position, especially when looking beyond 2007, so a position with four options available is likely to get shuffled to the back burner.

DRAFT POTENTIAL:
- Day 1: NO WAY
- Day 2: LATE, IF AT ALL

Heading in to the 2007 season, fans should expect more of the same, but also something very different.

Don;’t expect new coach Mike Tomlin to shy away from the run. He comes across as a big fan of smashmouth football — why not, he’s a defense guy, after all — and one of the gifts he received when he was hired was a Pro Bowl-tailback in Willie Parker. Behind Parker, though, things get fuzzy.

The Steelers will run, run, run this year. Tomlin has voiced his desire to feature a balanced attack on offense, and he has a weapon at his disposal who can break for 60 yards or more on any play. But Tomlin recently stated his desire to utilize a two-back combination, which is quickly becoming the “in” thing to do on offense. The Steelers had this type of attack leading up to their victory in Super Bowl XL, with the speed of Parker and the prototypical power of Jerome Bettis. Tomlin believes he already has the players he needs. Therein lies the complication.

Behind speedster Parker, the Steelers have Verron Haynes, soon-to-be free agent Najeh Davenport and the very Hulk-like but very inexperienced John Kuhn (6′0″, 255 pounds according to the Steelers’ official Web site). Signing Davenport worked out pretty well for the Steelers last season until he went down with a broken ankle, his second major injury in as many seasons. Unfortunately, no one was able to see enough of him last year, and an already-tight salary cap may not allow the team to re-sign him. Backs over 240 pounds who can run fast are hard to come by, so even the risk of injury won’t prevent other teams from looking to Davenport.

Verron Haynes has been good for Pittsburgh on and off the field. He had only 15 carries in 2006, but he averaged 5.2 yards. he also had 18 receptions for 95 yards. He’s quiet, he does his job, knows his role and gives it his all on every down. The problem is that he’s barely bigger that Parker at 5′10″ and 222 pounds.

John Kuhn is the wildcard here. Right now, it doesn’t seem very many people are sure of his current contract status. He’s been signed and cut by the team twice, and he saw very limited action — but he averaged 11 yards per touch. During his college career he had 26 games of more than 100 yards on the ground, but he played at Shippensburg, which is about the size of some community colleges. There’s really not much to go on aside from his work on the practice squad, but he has the size to potentially get him on the roster for the entire 2007 season if he plays short-yardage well in the preseason.

At a position with this many options, don’t expect a day-one draft pick. Some draft watchers have the team taking Marshawn Lynch of California, but don’t bet on it. The Steelers have more pressing needs, including outside linebacker (the salary cap hit at OLB for 2007 is ridiculous for two guys who will be 30 this year) and offensive line. Maybe rounds six or seven, when the picks are more experimental than pre-planned, but certainly nothing higher than that. Not when they already have so much talent available.

DRAFT POTENTIAL:
- Day 1: MODERATE TO HIGH
- Day 2: VERY HIGH

Expect the fullback position to get a lot of attention this offseason. Throughout 2006 the team carried a single fullback, sometimes listing Jerame Tuman as the backup to starter Dan Kreider.

Kreider is one of the perennial bright spots of the team. He is, without a doubt, a top-five fullback and is arguably the best blocking fullback in the league. He quietly goes about his job each week, gives it his all, and has paved the way for Jerome Bettis, Willie Parker and — for the brief period when he was actually healthy — Duce Staley, among a host of others.

But Kreider is reaching that usability limit with fullbacks. Now a seven-year veteran, he isn’t getting any younger, and with age comes an increased likelihood for injury. While his outstanding play throughout his entire career has been a huge asset for the team, depending on him to last the entire season is actually a liability. One lengthy stay on the injury report can be disasterous for a team that prides itself in its running game, so a backup at the position is an absolute must.

Because Dan Kreider is essentially guaranteed to start, this is a perfect position on which to use a day-two draft pick. If there’s a late-round gem waiting to be called, you can bet the Steelers already have someone scouting for it.

There doesn’t appear to be much early-round interest in fullbacks this year, so what talent is out there should still be available in the later rounds. While it’s most likely that the Steelers will waite until day two, they may choose to grab the top remaining prospect at fullback late in the first day.

There are also a number of free-agent fullbacks who should be available this year, and two of the better ones available come from intraconference rival New England. You can safely bet that the Patriots won’t let both Heath Evans and Patrick Pass go, but don’t expect the Kraft family and Bill Bellichick to make much effort to keep them both around, either. The Patriots, like the Steelers, tend to look to the draft and rookie free agents to bolster their ranks and keep youth playing in their favor.

Former head coach Bill Cowher has a new job.

“The Jaw,” or “Face,” as he was known to some close to him, has joined the CBS cast as a gameday analyst. He joins a group full of former All-Pro players, including Dan Marino, Shannon Sharpe, Phil Simms and Boomer Esiason, as well as host James Brown.

The pairing of the coach and CBS could make for an interesting inter-network rivalry: former Steelers running back Jerome Bettis works as an analyst for NBC, and in his first telecast painted a less-than-pretty picture of Bill Cowher, while Cowher was still coaching the Steelers.

The signing ends any remaining speculation that he will join an NFL team for the 2007 season in any capacity — although it was unlikely anyway, as the Rooneys probably would not have given him permission to do so. He remains under contract with the Steelers until the end of the upcoming season.

Cowher also hinted that he may not return to coaching at any level in the NFL for at least several years, saying, “I didn’t get out of it to get back into it,” referring to filling a coaching vacancy somewhere in the league. He seems to genuinely relish the new opportunity, which will allow him to spend more time with his family — his primary reason for retiring. He plans to commute from his new home in Raleigh, N.C. to the CBS studios in New York each weekend.

He also commented that he will not have any trouble critiquing the Steelers, because he would have done the same thing if he was still the head coach. That’s news to me, because it sure didn’t seem like he did much talking or critiquing at all in 2006.

DRAFT POTENTIAL:
- Day 1: NOT HAPPENING
- Day 2: LOW

I’m not one for painting rosy pictures of a bad situation. If there is a truly weak link on the line, it’s at Right Tackle. Current starter Max Starks has had a nearly schizophrenic career: one week, he’s mauling All-Pro defensive ends. The next week he looks like a an old man trying to chase down a cockroach with the end of his cane. He’s big, he’s strong and he’s smart, but his play is just too unpredictable.

So is it worth risking the health of your franchise player (Roethlisberger) in hopes of less spotty play? Maybe, but the smartest way to go is to at least take a look at what will be available during the offseason. While Starks has had his share of poor performances, he’s still starter quality in most cities — just maybe not the ‘Burgh.

The reason was simple, at least until Bruce Arians was promoted to offensive coordinator. Now it’s a two-pronged necessity. Not only is this a team that prides itself on having a top-notch running game, now they will utilize four-wide receiver sets more often than in the past, putting that much more of a premium on blocking on the line. By taking the tight end out of the mix, you eliminate a potential blocker; the same goes for the fullback.

The in-house option for replacing Starks in the starting lineup is 2006 rookie Willie Colon. Colon started two games in 2006, his only real playing time in the NFL, so guaging his performance is difficult. The team was 1-1 during his two starts, the final two games of the season. He’s dramatically smaller (by 30 pounds and 4 inches) than Starks, which could actually give him an advantage over the incumbent starter, particularly in four-receiver sets.

I’ve already speculated that the team may attempt to trade up in this year’s draft to pick up Left Tackle Levi Brown of Penn State. He would definitely make a good option at right tackle, even though he’d be switching sides of the line, but I’ve also speculated that he could be moved to Right Guard as Alan Faneca’s backup. However, you generally don’t waste a first-round pick on someone who is destined to sit on the bench for at least another four years, so the more obvious option would be to utilize him at right tackle. That would likely move Starks or Colon to the Guard position.

Realistically, though, I don’t think there is much potential for drafting a right tackle before the sixth roud, and then only to add depth. The more likely situation is that we’ll see more of Willie Colon in 2007.

There is one big caveat here: Starks is a restricted free agent this year. There are teams needing major help, like the Arizona Cardinals. As uneven as Starks tends to be, he would certainly be an upgrade for that line. There are a number of other teams that are likely to be looking at him, as well. If Cowher was still in charge, they would likely counter any offer made by another team. But a new head coach, offensive coordinator and offensive line coach will probably eliminate that possibility.

Just don’t bet the farm that Max will be starting come September.